Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc891…28e5 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-3%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 48% -15.9%
≤30d 96 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 48% -15.9%
≤90d 96 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 48% -15.9%
all 96 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 48% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 48% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 48% -24.0%
15% -33.0% 48% -31.3%
20% -39.6% 34% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$29 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage3d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $34 +$66 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $59 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $64 −$14 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $33 +$17 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $125 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $62 −$12 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $88 −$38 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $65 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $33 +$17 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$29 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $33 +$14 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $89 +$61 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $58 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$47 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$29 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$35 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $29 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $23 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $29 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records