Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C8 0xc891…1cbe crypto 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,371 (-7%) realized −$1,002 · open −$369
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%90W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$1,436
14 days−$1,146
30 days−$985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$1,305
politics 40% −$18
other 14% −$262
world 3% −$120
sports 2% +$200
economics 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 45% -61.3%
≤30d 60 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 45% -21.7%
≤90d 133 -16.2% -24.2% 47% 41% -22.5%
all 195 -12.4% -20.7% 46% 39% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 39% -15.0%
10% -28.3% 36% -23.2%
15% -35.2% 33% -30.6%
20% -41.6% 30% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$42 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$632
Realized−$1,002
Unrealized−$369
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses90 / 105
Open positions7
Markets (closed)195 / 202
History coverage617d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 40¢ 14¢ $524 $179 −$344 (-66%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $105 $126 +$22 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $96 $118 +$22 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $101 $82 −$19 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $112 $71 −$41 (-36%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 44¢ 42¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$19 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$35 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$32 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $74 −$60 -81%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $64 +$37 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$24 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$142 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$116 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$31 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $303 −$301 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $236 −$232 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$42 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $120 −$116 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 +$24 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$35 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $150 +$225 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$22 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $435 +$930 +214%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $355 −$103 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $106 +$210 +199%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$69 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $169 −$164 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $58 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $39 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $72 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $40 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $42 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.46 · official $631.91 (match) · 839 history records