Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc88f…1c61 other 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$5
world 20% −$2
tech 19% −$3
politics 15% −$1
finance 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 37 -2.0% -11.4% 3% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 109 -4.8% -13.9% 8% 0% -12.8%
all 176 -4.6% -13.6% 8% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -12.9%
10% -21.9% 0% -21.2%
15% -29.5% 0% -28.8%
20% -36.4% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 162
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)176 / 176
History coverage221d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 176 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 08 $1 $0 -2%
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -0%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 01 $1 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 -1%
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 -0%
Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? May 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Savinho be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? May 23 $1 $0 -1%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 260,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $1 $0 -2%
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 19 $1 $0 -24%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? May 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 16 $1 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m? May 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13? May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 13 $7 $0 -0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Betmoar launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m May 09 $1 $0 -1%
Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 08 $1 −$1 -50%
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? May 05 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States SELL Yes 94¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 7d
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 7d
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary SELL Yes 96¢ $1 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 581 history records