Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc88f…d4c3 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
other 20% $0
politics 13% $0
crypto 12% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 33 -0.8% -10.3% 24% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage251d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $8 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 19 $3 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 10 $1 $0 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 10 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 9h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $41 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $12 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $12 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $35 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $38 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $38 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $42 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $42 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $16 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $19 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $1 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $31 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $7 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $4 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $35 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.39 · official $41.39 (match) · 105 history records