Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc88e…67f2 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$239 (-9%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$176
economics 27% −$80
politics 10% −$18
tech 5% −$20
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -19.5%
≤30d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -19.5%
≤90d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -19.5%
all 9 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -19.5%
10% -26.8% 0% -27.2%
15% -33.9% 0% -34.2%
20% -40.4% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$33 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 22 $137 −$20 -15%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 21 $283 −$41 -14%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $258 −$18 -7%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 19 $370 −$15 -4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 19 $433 −$106 -24%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 18 $470 −$52 -11%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $249 −$28 -11%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $474 −$14 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records