Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc88d…df88
world · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage515d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$6
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 83¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $22 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $62 +$4 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $136 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $51 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $47 −$4 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $123 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $56 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $4 +$1 +20%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $37 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $83 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $5 −$2 -28%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $299 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $42 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $266 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $286 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $418 +$4 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $8 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $96 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $4 −$1 -15%
Idaho State vs. Montana Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brian Robinson Jr. score a touchdown? Feb 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Jan 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 15 $3 +$9 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% −$2
other 20% −$8
politics 15% +$4
finance 3% $0
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $34 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $7 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $40 18h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 18h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $4 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $37 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $17 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $23 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $44 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $44 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $21 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $19 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $40 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 27 -3.8% -13.0% 37% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -3.4% -12.6% 35% 3% -9.5%
all 38 -2.1% -11.4% 34% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records