Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc88c…f67d
sports · 286 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$559 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$561 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$13
Realized−$561
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses170 / 109
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)279 / 286
History coverage118d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 3 History 279 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$33
14 days+$36
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 79¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 35¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Yes 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins LG Twins 40¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Over 55¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$5 +18%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $4 +$3 +57%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +11%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $1 $0 +17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 01 $5 +$3 +55%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $3 +$2 +70%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 May 31 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$2 +17%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $20 +$3 +15%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $10 +$3 +29%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $10 −$4 -42%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $20 +$6 +30%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 05 $4 +$1 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Apr 25 $1 +$1 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ba Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Apr 25 $10 +$5 +55%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 22 $20 +$8 +40%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 17 $7 −$4 -64%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$332
other 23% −$148
crypto 10% −$45
finance 2% −$33
world 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will BUY 51¢ $10 40m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 65¢ $20 44m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $2 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 76¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 90¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Tessa Brockmann 77¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 80¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 20h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 95¢ $26 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States vs. Paragua BUY 30¢ $1 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 43¢ $1 20h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $7 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $30 24h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 24h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $7 38h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $10 38h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 39h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 39h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 48¢ $1 45h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 45h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 56¢ $2 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 47h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 47h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $2 2d
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $4 3d
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Spurs 63¢ $7 5d
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 90¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +25.5% +13.5% 76% 76% +12.8%
≤30d 29 +15.9% +4.8% 76% 72% +10.8%
≤90d 89 -16.1% -24.1% 56% 46% -32.7%
all 279 -6.6% -15.5% 61% 48% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 48% -20.7%
10% -23.6% 38% -28.3%
15% -31.0% 28% -35.2%
20% -37.7% 19% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.04 · official $43.01 · 651 history records