Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc88a…7e26 other 859 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (187 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$14,252 (+1926%) realized +$13,358 · open +$894
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%256W / 465L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day187.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$943now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$617
other 41% +$820
weather 7% +$18
politics 3% +$18
crypto 2% +$34
world 2% −$2
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (187 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+63.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 496 +41.7% +28.2% 23% 21% -34.0%
≤30d 721 +81.1% +63.9% 36% 33% +34.9%
≤90d 721 +81.1% +63.9% 36% 33% +34.9%
all 721 +81.1% +63.9% 36% 33% +34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover187.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.9% 33% +34.9%
10% ← realistic here +48.2% 30% +22.0%
15% +33.9% 28% +10.2%
20% +20.7% 25% -0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +168% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$943
Realized+$13,358
Unrealized+$894
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses256 / 465
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions61
Markets (closed)721 / 859
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day187.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Panama (-4.5) Panama 50¢ $3 $114 +$111 (+3869%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Over 44¢ $3 $101 +$98 (+3395%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-4.5) Saudi Arabia 50¢ $2 $71 +$69 (+3404%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ $1 $68 +$67 (+4650%)
Alexis Vega: 3+ goals Yes 47¢ $1 $68 +$66 (+4625%)
César Huerta: 3+ goals Yes 44¢ $1 $64 +$63 (+4350%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-5.5) Saudi Arabia 50¢ $1 $59 +$57 (+3979%)
Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals Yes 29¢ $1 $42 +$40 (+2800%)
Oh Hyeongyu: 3+ goals Yes 29¢ $1 $42 +$40 (+2800%)
Hwang Heechan: 3+ goals Yes 28¢ $1 $36 +$35 (+2431%)
Armando González: 3+ goals Yes 28¢ $1 $32 +$31 (+2137%)
Cho Guesung: 3+ goals Yes 28¢ $1 $29 +$28 (+1918%)
Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals Yes 27¢ $1 $29 +$27 (+1898%)
Spread: Ghana (-5.5) Ghana 50¢ $0 $22 +$21 (+4850%)
Spread: Panama (-5.5) Panama 50¢ $0 $22 +$21 (+4850%)
Spread: Ghana (-4.5) Ghana 50¢ $0 $22 +$21 (+4850%)
Spread: Panama (-3.5) Panama 50¢ $0 $22 +$21 (+4850%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-5.5) Côte dIvoire 50¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+4850%)
Guillermo Martínez: 2+ assists Yes 39¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1200%)
Armando González: 2+ assists Yes 48¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1098%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ $1 $6 +$4 (+422%)
Alexis Vega: 4+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $1 $5 +$5 (+707%)
Oh Hyeongyu: 2+ assists Yes 40¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+679%)
Armando González: 3+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+579%)
Alexis Vega: 2+ assists Yes 48¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+692%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 439 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -83%
Ethereum above 2,300 on April 14, 9AM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 3? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +221%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on May 3? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum above 1,980 on April 5, 2AM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Map Handicap: BFG (-1.5) vs EVOPLAY (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 2,255 on May 11, 5AM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 2,330 on April 21, 7PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 2,035 on April 3, 4PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be exactly 3 major space weather events this week? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Mauthausen: Lukas Neumayer vs Laslo Djere Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 79,600 on May 5, 6PM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 6 or more major space weather events this week? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 75,000 on April 17, 9AM ET? Jun 17 $1 $0 +35%
Will "Someone Has to Know" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Aidan Mayo Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 2,340 on May 6, 1PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: CD Coquimbo Unido (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 72,400 on April 9, 2AM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of May 11 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$6 +599%
Kennedy vs. Basavareddy: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 76,000 on May 19, 4PM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $75 on April 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hiroki Moriya vs. Koki Matsuda: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on May 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
T20 Series Germany vs Austria: Germany vs Austria - Completed match? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs Basement Bobs - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 69,800 on April 8, 6AM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (S Jun 17 $1 $0 -49%
Bitcoin above 72,600 on April 13, 11PM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 81,200 on May 5, 6PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 76,600 on May 18, 3AM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 90°F or higher on March Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 11AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ghana (-4.5) BUY Ghana $0 8m
Spread: Panama (-3.5) BUY Panama $0 8m
Spread: Panama (-5.5) BUY Panama $0 8m
Spread: Ghana (-5.5) BUY Ghana $0 8m
Spread: Ghana (-4.5) BUY Ghana $0 8m
Spread: Ghana (-5.5) BUY Ghana $0 8m
Spread: Panama (-5.5) BUY Panama $0 8m
Spread: Panama (-3.5) BUY Panama $0 8m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-5.5) BUY Côte dIvoire $0 8m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $1 8m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $0 8m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $1 11m
Spread: Ghana (-3.5) SELL Ghana $5 13m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $0 21m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $1 42m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $1 42m
Spread: Ghana (-3.5) BUY Ghana $1 42m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $1 42m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $1 42m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $0 42m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $1 42m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $1 42m
Spread: Panama (-4.5) BUY Panama $1 42m
Spread: Panama (-4.5) BUY Panama $0 42m
Spread: Panama (-4.5) BUY Panama $1 42m
Spread: Panama (-4.5) BUY Panama $0 42m
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 17? SELL No $1 46m
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 17? SELL No $1 46m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 72¢ $4 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $943.21 · official $942.41 (match) · 3500 history records