Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc88a…5acb crypto 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+0%) realized +$67 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%90W / 4L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$22
14 days+$48
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$67
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 22 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 60 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 2% -9.2%
all 94 -1.6% -11.0% 96% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 1% -9.3%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$767) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$1,065
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses90 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)94 / 97
History coverage150d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,060 $1,062 +$2 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,055 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,045 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,049 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,043 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,041 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,037 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,027 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,026 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,025 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,019 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,016 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,012 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1,009 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $767 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $643 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $413 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,055 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,049 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $508 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $535 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $368 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $673 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,037 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,027 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,026 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $546 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $479 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $192 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $827 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,016 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,012 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,009 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $244 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $263 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $995 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,065.06 · official $1,065.06 (match) · 210 history records