Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc889…a01f crypto 1453 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$100 (+3%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate72%1269W / 483L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day66.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$745
7 days−$743
14 days−$747
30 days−$746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
sports 0% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 805 -37.0% -43.0% 55% 22% -31.3%
≤30d 1752 -17.2% -25.1% 72% 39% -20.6%
≤90d 1752 -17.2% -25.1% 72% 39% -20.6%
all 1752 -17.2% -25.1% 72% 39% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 39% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 4% -28.2%
15% -38.8% 0% -35.1%
20% -44.8% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1269 / 483
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1752 / 1453
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 467 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1493%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -612%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1595%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -890%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2502%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -2705%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -861%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -3021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1467%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -2051%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -863%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -644%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -740%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -855%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -675%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -700%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -773%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -934%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -3958%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1970%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.81 · official $4.81 (match) · 3500 history records