Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc886…c691 world 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%34W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$1
14 days−$16
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$3
other 22% −$10
sports 20% −$1
politics 2% −$13
finance 1% −$5
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 47 -0.6% -10.0% 34% 2% -9.7%
all 94 -1.4% -10.8% 36% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses34 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage476d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $152 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $58 +$4 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $169 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $153 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $37 −$5 -13%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $156 +$2 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $171 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $85 −$2 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $305 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $163 −$5 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $505 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $264 −$4 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $185 −$6 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $315 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $141 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $165 +$4 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $182 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $337 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $432 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $167 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $332 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $207 +$13 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $185 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $182 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $310 +$5 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $169 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $5 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $86 −$5 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $44 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $21 +$3 +15%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $79 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $77 −$12 -16%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,017 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $317 −$8 -3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 10 $12 $0 +2%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $152 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $152 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $39 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $38 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $169 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $169 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $154 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $153 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $24 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $37 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $97 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $60 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $156 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $48 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $40 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $171 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $171 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $18 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $45 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $63 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $156 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $89 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $67 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records