Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc882…0662 crypto 422 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43,802 (-18%) realized −$43,845 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%191W / 230L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$566per market
Trades / day67.4pace
Fees−$1,269est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$552
7 days+$1,586
14 days+$887
30 days−$22,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$35,529
sports 26% −$24,594
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.9% +3.1% 57% 57% +20.1%
≤30d 23 -18.9% -26.6% 43% 43% -31.0%
≤90d 421 -12.4% -20.8% 45% 42% -33.4%
all 421 -12.4% -20.8% 45% 42% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 42% -33.4%
10% -28.4% 37% -39.8%
15% ← realistic here -35.3% 35% -45.6%
20% -41.6% 33% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$552 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$1,199
Realized−$43,845
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses191 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,269
Open positions1
Markets (closed)421 / 422
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$566
Trades / day67.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 53¢ 55¢ $1,156 $1,199 +$43 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 16 $571 −$552 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $559 +$519 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $541 −$523 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $518 −$414 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $828 +$772 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $816 +$784 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,050 +$1,000 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 09 $1,035 +$965 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 09 $1,747 +$1,453 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 04 $1,643 −$1,589 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 03 $1,581 −$1,528 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2,306 −$2,234 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 01 $3,194 −$3,116 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? Jun 01 $5,519 +$3,626 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $2,059 −$2,006 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 27 $4,197 −$4,052 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 26 $5,781 −$5,610 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 26 $5,991 +$4,285 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $6,139 −$5,940 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 21 $3,565 −$3,446 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $22,891 −$19,335 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $13,184 +$9,703 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $7,941 +$5,205 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $18,589 −$16,676 -90%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $14,617 +$8,841 +60%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $7,019 −$6,862 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 17 $6,504 −$6,373 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $3,657 −$3,570 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 17 $755 −$755 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $716 −$716 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $1,827 −$1,827 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner May 17 $4,430 −$4,364 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11AM ET May 17 $148 −$144 -97%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner May 17 $4,267 −$4,200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $2,383 −$2,346 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4AM ET May 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9AM ET May 17 $130 +$108 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3PM ET May 17 $134 +$116 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET May 17 $154 +$126 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8PM ET May 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 17 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9PM ET May 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 17 $218 +$182 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2PM ET May 17 $62 +$58 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8AM ET May 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 17 $122 +$96 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 55¢ $227 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 54¢ $279 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 54¢ $223 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $259 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $155 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 54¢ $56 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 54¢ $67 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 49¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 49¢ $355 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 51¢ $42 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $158 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $171 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $79 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 50¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 51¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 49¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 50¢ $207 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 11¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 51¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 50¢ $207 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 50¢ $518 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 50¢ $310 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,198.99 · official $1,198.99 (match) · 3500 history records