Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C8 0xc881…9f44 sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$933 (+3%) realized +$933 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate61%54W / 35L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$609
other 2% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.2% -26.9% 50% 33% -15.6%
≤30d 18 -42.0% -47.5% 33% 28% -29.1%
≤90d 89 -8.6% -17.3% 61% 27% -7.8%
all 89 -8.6% -17.3% 61% 27% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 27% -7.8%
10% -25.2% 17% -16.6%
15% -32.4% 15% -24.7%
20% -39.0% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$83 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$933
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses54 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage77d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland England 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $44 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $203 −$2 -1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $123 −$120 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $222 −$220 -99%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? May 24 $218 −$182 -84%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $422 −$50 -12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $204 +$41 +20%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $58 −$57 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $1,194 −$23 -2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians - Toss May 20 $52 −$2 -5%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $796 +$143 +18%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $252 +$27 +11%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $291 −$46 -16%
T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 0.5 May 17 $94 +$2 +2%
T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 1.5 May 17 $512 +$13 +3%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans - Compl May 17 $40 +$1 +2%
T20 2nd Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5 May 17 $511 +$8 +2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $416 −$15 -4%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 16 $170 +$4 +2%
T20 2nd Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5 May 16 $33 +$1 +4%
T20 1st Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 29.5 May 16 $273 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $1,004 −$14 -1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Completed matc May 14 $10 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $340 −$135 -40%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $1,503 −$3 -0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? May 13 $228 +$29 +13%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $1,705 −$5 -0%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $1,586 +$90 +6%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants - C May 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan - Match go May 10 $35 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Compl May 08 $997 +$2 +0%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $102 −$95 -93%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $323 −$321 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $1,680 −$375 -22%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $803 +$116 +14%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $540 −$374 -69%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $1,552 −$21 -1%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 02 $589 +$213 +36%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $1,798 +$59 +3%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $1,408 +$598 +42%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals - Completed ma Apr 28 $241 +$7 +3%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $297 +$119 +40%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - Apr 27 $39 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 99¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 50¢ $25 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 72¢ $4 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 11¢ $2 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 47¢ $11 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 64¢ $10 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $0 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 20¢ $6 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc BUY Yes 99¢ $44 3d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $33 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 55¢ $168 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $203 18d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 5¢ $21 20d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 34¢ $102 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 13¢ $33 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 13¢ $19 21d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 72¢ $222 23d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 24¢ $51 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 84¢ $576 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $2 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $3 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $5 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $3 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 54¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 403 history records