Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc881…e370
world · 50 markets active 2h ago
8.0score
+$174 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$121 · open +$53
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$804
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage141d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 5 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$77
14 days+$110
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 67¢ 73¢ $605 $658 +$53 (+9%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 71¢ 74¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+5%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Qatar 66¢ 64¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 52¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $649 −$67 -10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $21 +$10 +48%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $96 +$33 +34%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$22 +213%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $42 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $109 +$24 +22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $591 +$33 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 06 $100 −$34 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 04 $439 +$84 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 11 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 11 $30 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$6 +59%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $31 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 09 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 09 $101 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 08 $100 +$77 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 08 $515 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 08 $466 +$49 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 08 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 08 $440 +$26 +6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026? Apr 07 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $306 +$136 +44%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026? Apr 07 $81 +$11 +14%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? Apr 07 $377 −$119 -32%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 02 $17 −$15 -88%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 02 $20 −$13 -65%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026? Jan 30 $64 +$18 +29%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026? Jan 29 $126 −$57 -45%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jan 29 $7 +$56 +804%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026? Jan 28 $80 +$36 +44%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 27 $50 −$20 -39%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026? Jan 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $50 −$6 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% −$12
crypto 34% +$45
sports 5% +$63
other 0% +$22
tech 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $605 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $582 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $40 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $10 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $30 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $51 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $21 20h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $128 22h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 22h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 22h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $96 34h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $71 46h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $61 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $649 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $120 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $624 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $102 16d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $489 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +39.1% +25.9% 80% 80% -2.7%
≤30d 11 +36.1% +23.1% 82% 73% -3.3%
≤90d 35 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 49% -7.7%
all 45 +13.0% +2.3% 58% 47% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 47% -7.5%
10% -7.5% 40% -16.4%
15% -16.4% 31% -24.5%
20% -24.6% 16% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $804.04 · official $805.19 (match) · 160 history records