Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc880…d360 other 152 markets active 2d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$997 (-0%) realized −$997 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,342per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$12
14 days+$47
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,167
politics 33% −$77
sports 15% +$191
world 3% +$31
culture 2% −$7
economics 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 +9.8% -0.7% 20% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 121 -7.7% -16.5% 11% 6% -10.4%
all 152 +0.3% -9.3% 19% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 11% -10.0%
10% -18.0% 11% -18.6%
15% -25.9% 9% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,752) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$19 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$997
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,342
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,735 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,667 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,476 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $437 +$6 +1%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,462 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,640 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $3,199 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $5,171 −$5 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,403 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,286 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $54 +$79 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $436 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $505 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,442 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $2,857 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,066 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,383 −$3 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $51 +$72 +140%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $57 +$62 +109%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $4,980 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $2,524 −$4 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $5,856 −$6 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $2,549 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,332 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $4,182 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,361 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1,355 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,414 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 25 $1,388 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,050 40h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,051 41h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,285 46h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,287 47h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,474 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,476 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $437 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,462 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,464 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,336 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,338 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,324 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,326 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,363 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,365 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,273 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,275 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,075 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 9d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,367 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,368 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,284 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,286 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $54 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,166 14d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,167 14d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $66 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,571 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,573 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,562 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 488 history records