Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C8 0xc87c…afd7 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6,748 (-30%) realized −$6,776 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,428per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$331est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,421
7 days−$1,310
14 days−$1,310
30 days−$6,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6,823
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -28.6%
≤30d 13 -12.3% -20.7% 46% 46% -38.1%
≤90d 14 -18.6% -26.4% 43% 43% -39.6%
all 14 -18.6% -26.4% 43% 43% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 43% -39.6%
10% -33.4% 43% -45.4%
15% -39.8% 43% -50.6%
20% -45.7% 43% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,086 vs −$1,671 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2,013
Realized−$6,776
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$331
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage30d
Avg bet$1,428
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 180.5 Over 51¢ 51¢ $1,073 $1,073 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Minnesota Lynx 49¢ 50¢ $912 $940 +$28 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 Jun 20 $2,495 +$2,421 +97%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 16 $3,788 −$3,732 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $8 −$8 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 Jun 04 $2,591 −$2,553 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $2,616 +$2,162 +83%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 03 $1,352 +$1,230 +91%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 26 $4,160 −$4,099 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) May 26 $542 +$466 +86%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 25 $123 +$114 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $137 +$123 +90%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 May 24 $123 −$121 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5 May 24 $1,403 −$1,382 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 23 $1,007 −$993 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) May 22 $487 −$480 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 180.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,089 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $926 1h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2,495 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $3,788 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 16d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,499 17d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,092 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2,616 18d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $835 19d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 51¢ $517 19d
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $4,160 26d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 53¢ $542 27d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $137 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 51¢ $123 27d
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 BUY Under 51¢ $123 27d
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,403 28d
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) BUY Cavaliers 52¢ $1,007 29d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 50¢ $487 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,012.92 · official $2,012.92 (match) · 24 history records