Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc879…30a4 sports 185 markets active 6d ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$109 (-2%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%74W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$465
14 days−$437
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$322
crypto 13% +$54
other 1% +$53
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -59.6% -63.4% 17% 8% -64.3%
≤30d 123 -4.1% -13.3% 38% 37% -10.8%
≤90d 166 -7.7% -16.5% 36% 35% -17.0%
all 185 -1.9% -11.3% 40% 39% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 39% -11.1%
10% -19.8% 37% -19.6%
15% -27.5% 35% -27.3%
20% -34.6% 32% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses74 / 111
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage178d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 −$5 -9%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $110 −$108 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $148 −$7 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $129 +$11 +9%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $124 −$121 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$27 +106%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $46 −$45 -98%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 −$19 -48%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $152 −$110 -72%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 09 $46 −$45 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $50 −$3 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $68 −$67 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $27 +$30 +109%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $53 −$52 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $9 +$12 +128%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 07 $20 +$29 +140%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $26 +$54 +213%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$4 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$60 +118%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $30 −$29 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17 +$18 +108%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $83 +$136 +165%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $42 −$2 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $72 +$101 +139%
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Toronto Marlies Jun 01 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? May 31 $25 +$48 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $44 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 31 $122 +$24 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $118 +$100 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 31 $105 −$90 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $109 +$104 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $158 −$75 -47%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) May 31 $260 −$72 -28%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 31 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 19¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $46 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $50 6d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $110 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 12¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 76¢ $117 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 90¢ $140 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 93¢ $141 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 85¢ $129 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 8¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 20¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $54 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $52 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $46 6d
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL PARIVISION 17¢ $16 6d
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL PARIVISION 15¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $25 6d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $49 6d
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 30¢ $41 6d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Knicks 14¢ $33 6d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Knicks 15¢ $10 6d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $152 6d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 29¢ $46 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 42¢ $47 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $50 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $68 7d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) SELL Legacy 100¢ $57 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 8d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY B8 30¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 465 history records