Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

C8 0xc877…e6a1 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-7%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-39.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	3	-33.0%	-39.4%	67%	0%	-21.3%
all	3	-33.0%	-39.4%	67%	0%	-21.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.4%	0%	-21.3%
10%	-45.2%	0%	-28.8%
15%	-50.5%	0%	-35.7%
20%	-55.4%	0%	-42.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.02 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)3 / 7

History coverage81d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	96¢	96¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	63¢	89¢	$1	$2	+$1 (+41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	27¢	24¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	May 15	$5	$0	+0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee	Apr 17	$2	$0	+1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Mar 26	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	85¢	$2	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	96¢	$1	6d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY Yes	63¢	$1	20d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	97¢	$2	27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$5	30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	98¢	$5	38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee	BUY Yes	99¢	$2	58d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	27¢	$1	67d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	80d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.97 · official $8.97 (match) · 9 history records