Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc876…7dc8 other 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$35
other 24% −$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% −$10
politics 3% −$5
finance 3% +$6
culture 2% $0
economics 1% −$2
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 28 -5.3% -14.3% 29% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 33 -4.2% -13.4% 33% 0% -10.5%
all 92 -5.4% -14.4% 37% 1% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 1% -10.7%
10% -22.6% 0% -19.2%
15% -30.0% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage473d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $128 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $126 −$4 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $22 −$5 -22%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $65 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $128 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $122 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $72 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $248 −$2 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $169 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $38 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $150 −$11 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $71 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $97 +$6 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 26 $74 −$3 -4%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $75 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $88 −$7 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $183 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $92 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $91 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $18 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 27 $10 $0 -2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu? Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 06 $18 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $2 $0 -28%
French Open: Sinner vs. Bublik Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $3 $0 -12%
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suri Jun 03 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $72 20m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $72 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $35 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $34 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $4 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 65¢ $4 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $63 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $73 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $73 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $65 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $64 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $66 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $64 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $64 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $42 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $54 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $17 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 16¢ $9 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $9 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 347 history records