Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C8 0xc876…a23d crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$198 (-78%) realized −$201 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-43.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-37.1%	-43.1%	43%	29%	-96.2%
≤30d	7	-37.1%	-43.1%	43%	29%	-96.2%
≤90d	7	-37.1%	-43.1%	43%	29%	-96.2%
all	7	-37.1%	-43.1%	43%	29%	-96.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-43.1%	29%	-96.2%
10%	-48.5%	29%	-96.6%
15%	-53.5%	29%	-96.9%
20%	-58.0%	29%	-97.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -96% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$51 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized−$201

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	47¢	50¢	$40	$43	+$3 (+8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 21	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 21	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 21	$52	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 21	$1	+$1	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 21	$1	+$1	+76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$42	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$52	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$52	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$52	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$51	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$1	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$1	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Up	58¢	$5	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.38 · official $43.38 (match) · 14 history records