Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
C8 0xc876…9903 sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,062 (+15%) realized +$3,097 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$3,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$3,308
other 32% −$723
world 3% −$711
crypto 1% +$966
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +26.4% +14.3% 37% 37% +5.2%
≤30d 67 +26.4% +14.3% 37% 37% +5.2%
≤90d 67 +26.4% +14.3% 37% 37% +5.2%
all 67 +26.4% +14.3% 37% 37% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 37% +5.2%
10% +3.4% 37% -4.9%
15% -6.6% 37% -14.0%
20% -15.7% 33% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$373 vs −$154 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3,215
Realized+$3,097
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions5
Markets (closed)67 / 72
History coverage7d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1,100 $1,111 +$11 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-0%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 50¢ $600 $579 −$21 (-3%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $500 $486 −$14 (-3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 48¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 18 $506 −$506 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 −$507 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 −$507 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $608 −$608 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 18 $609 −$609 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $711 −$711 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $1,073 −$1,073 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 18 $236 −$236 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$116 +226%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$60 +119%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$76 +250%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $507 +$436 +86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$579 +114%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $506 +$314 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 +$265 +1290%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $507 +$436 +86%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $609 +$568 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,096 +$1,022 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $203 +$273 +134%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,009 +$422 +42%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $72 +$1,036 +1440%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $41 +$59 +146%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $81 +$70 +86%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $101 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $507 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,009 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $507 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 5h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 11h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 11h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 11h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $51 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $31 16h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $507 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $507 22h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $507 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $609 41h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,214.96 · official $3,214.96 (match) · 117 history records