Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc871…57e7 sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$444 (+10%) realized +$445 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%43W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$558
7 days−$791
14 days−$480
30 days−$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$19
sports 26% −$418
world 18% +$241
crypto 15% +$10
politics 9% +$136
tech 5% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 20% -50.9%
≤30d 16 -4.8% -13.8% 56% 31% -29.7%
≤90d 52 -6.2% -15.2% 54% 44% -17.0%
all 85 -3.6% -12.8% 51% 42% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 42% -12.9%
10% -21.1% 40% -21.3%
15% -28.8% 33% -28.9%
20% -35.7% 29% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$30 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$445
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses43 / 42
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage131d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $121 $120 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 29 $49 −$33 -68%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 29 $193 −$86 -45%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $898 −$379 -42%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $239 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $224 +$6 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $188 −$185 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $73 +$115 +158%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $300 −$295 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $102 +$60 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 +$296 +146%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 20 $37 +$4 +10%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $22 +$8 +34%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $49 +$31 +65%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 18 $33 +$17 +51%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 18 $80 +$40 +51%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $138 +$62 +45%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Apr 10 $5 +$5 +100%
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Magic (-10.5) Apr 09 $6 +$4 +75%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $26 +$24 +89%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $27 +$83 +314%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5 Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Apr 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5 Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-2.5) Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Miyazaki: Tung-Lin Wu vs Paul Jubb Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5 Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $4 +$6 +158%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Apr 03 $5 +$5 +96%
Canucks vs. Wild Apr 03 $8 +$2 +28%
Barletta: Remy Bertola vs Tom Gentzsch Apr 02 $7 +$3 +48%
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 249.5 Apr 02 $5 +$5 +97%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintseva Apr 02 $8 +$2 +30%
Spread: Hawks (-4.5) Apr 02 $4 +$6 +133%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Apr 01 $90 +$10 +11%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $138 +$52 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $123 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 37¢ $107 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 50¢ $385 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 56¢ $186 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 59¢ $121 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes $77 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 30¢ $513 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $42 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $243 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $230 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $184 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $73 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $300 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 62¢ $49 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 6d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 65¢ $193 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $50 8d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $9 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 64¢ $6 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 13d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 15d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 15d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 15d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 75d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.68 · official $119.68 (match) · 523 history records