Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc871…7d99 sports 561 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,525 (-7%) realized −$1,531 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%182W / 376L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,815
other 2% −$100
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% −$19
politics 0% +$7
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -67.6% -70.7% 8% 8% -44.6%
≤30d 16 -75.7% -78.0% 6% 6% -77.5%
≤90d 108 -10.6% -19.1% 29% 29% -20.8%
all 558 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 32% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 32% -17.2%
10% -20.0% 31% -25.2%
15% -27.8% 30% -32.4%
20% -34.8% 28% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$35 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$1,531
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses182 / 376
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions3
Markets (closed)558 / 561
History coverage220d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 558 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 60¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+71%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $53 $38 −$15 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 266 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 −$53 -99%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $37 −$4 -11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $114 −$112 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $112 −$112 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $77 −$76 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $30 +$23 +76%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $31 −$26 -84%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $81 +$138 +170%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $21 −$20 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $31 −$30 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $51 −$50 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $51 +$101 +197%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $82 −$80 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $40 +$28 +70%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $50 −$39 -78%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $41 −$40 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $21 +$134 +650%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $41 +$88 +216%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $41 +$51 +124%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $20 +$83 +414%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $20 −$19 -97%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $40 +$66 +165%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $40 +$81 +204%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $100 +$285 +285%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $100 −$97 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $91 −$89 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes $10 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $54 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $33 5h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $37 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $49 42h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 43h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $3 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 3d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 4d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 28¢ $12 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 35¢ $102 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers $21 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 22¢ $22 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 22¢ $22 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 39¢ $14 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 39¢ $12 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 39¢ $10 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 39¢ $10 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 39¢ $2 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 25¢ $30 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.27 · official $139.27 (match) · 1892 history records