Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc871…6929
world · 31 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage264d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $37 +$2 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $16 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$4
other 28% $0
sports 18% $0
politics 13% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $45 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $29 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $12 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $38 29h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $32 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $6 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $37 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $4 178d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 180d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 SELL No 99¢ $23 255d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 BUY No 98¢ $23 255d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $23 256d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $23 256d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $23 256d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $27 256d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $12 256d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $16 256d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $12 257d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 257d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 0% -4.2%
≤30d 5 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 0% -4.2%
≤90d 5 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 0% -4.2%
all 30 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -8.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -17.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.80 · official $44.80 (match) · 79 history records