Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc86f…9bcf weather 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$128 (-2%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate76%102W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$44
14 days−$214
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% −$98
world 10% −$26
other 4% +$23
sports 4% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -12.8% -21.1% 77% 19% -7.4%
≤30d 130 -3.3% -12.5% 76% 20% -10.4%
≤90d 134 -3.8% -12.9% 76% 20% -10.9%
all 134 -3.8% -12.9% 76% 20% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 20% -10.9%
10% -21.3% 10% -19.5%
15% -28.9% 6% -27.2%
20% -35.8% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses102 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage32d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 $0 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $39 +$9 +22%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$5 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $43 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $202 +$22 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$12 -67%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +27%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $581 +$13 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $105 +$24 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $183 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 −$38 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $87 −$46 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $88 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $190 −$102 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $118 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $73 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $165 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $172 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $166 +$3 +2%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $76 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $8 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $199 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 98¢ $124 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 98¢ $71 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $200 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $195 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 96¢ $48 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 78¢ $39 30h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $8 37h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $8 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $18 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 6¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 6¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $11 41h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 92¢ $14 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 92¢ $14 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 92¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 92¢ $14 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $21 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 537 history records