Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc86e…5632 other 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate54%97W / 81L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$2,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days+$195
14 days+$253
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$192
crypto 19% +$12
finance 7% −$1
sports 5% −$431
world 1% −$6
weather 0% $0
economics 0% −$19
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -26.9% -33.8% 31% 11% -8.1%
≤30d 99 -18.0% -25.8% 47% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 178 -17.3% -25.2% 54% 10% -10.4%
all 178 -17.3% -25.2% 54% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 10% -10.4%
10% -32.3% 7% -19.0%
15% -38.9% 6% -26.8%
20% -44.9% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2,372
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses97 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions47
Markets (closed)178 / 161
History coverage65d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $953 $952 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $594 $593 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $579 $581 +$2 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $17 $42 +$26 (+154%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 20¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+1085%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$13 (+754%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+653%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+605%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+299%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+257%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+233%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+221%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $572 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $1,283 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,621 +$15 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $347 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $292 +$7 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $14 +$86 +596%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $14 +$86 +596%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,186 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1,049 +$50 +5%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 +$92 +1116%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $14 +$6 +40%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $595 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $954 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $798 8h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $216 12h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 13h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 13h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 13h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 13h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 13h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 13h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 14h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $167 14h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $579 17h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $572 17h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,288 23h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $796 29h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 32h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $694 32h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,283 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $952 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $179 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $169 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $689 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $981 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $299 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,159 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,372.30 · official $2,372.31 (match) · 626 history records