Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc86d…2e76 weather 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$988 (-32%) realized −$1,002 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$317
7 days−$451
14 days−$687
30 days−$788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$632
sports 28% $0
weather 25% −$411
world 6% +$4
politics 5% +$7
economics 0% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-59.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -78.8% -80.9% 11% 5% -58.7%
≤30d 38 -61.1% -64.8% 18% 13% -44.8%
≤90d 63 -60.1% -63.9% 16% 13% -43.6%
all 67 -55.5% -59.7% 18% 13% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.7% 13% -43.4%
10% -63.6% 10% -48.8%
15% -67.1% 9% -53.8%
20% -70.3% 9% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized−$1,002
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 55
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)67 / 72
History coverage101d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 48¢ 52¢ $157 $170 +$13 (+8%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $58 −$56 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $272 −$147 -54%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $106 +$62 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $65 +$2 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 17 $73 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 13 $236 −$236 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$24 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $112 −$26 -23%
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 04 $90 −$89 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $22 −$9 -43%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $324 −$41 -13%
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? May 31 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $182 +$128 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $42 −$21 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $100 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 23? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 23? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 23? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Eagle" in May? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Bird" in May? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 23 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10m
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 2¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 2¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 2¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 2¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 2¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 10¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 40h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 40h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $39 44h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 15¢ $4 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 6¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 6¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 6¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 8¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.90 · official $261.14 (match) · 266 history records