Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc86c…2a30
weather · 520 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$60 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$89 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$690
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses469 / 22
Open positions29
Markets (closed)491 / 520
History coverage12d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day285.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 29 History 491 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$169
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 91¢ 95¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? No 90¢ 92¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? No 95¢ 95¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 97¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? No 96¢ 92¢ $30 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 96¢ 88¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? No 98¢ 93¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? No 97¢ 90¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 95¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 27? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$10 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $27 11m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $7 23m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $7 24m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $7 25m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $7 26m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 +1.4% -8.3% 97% 2% -7.6%
≤30d 491 +1.3% -8.4% 96% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 491 +1.3% -8.4% 96% 2% -8.9%
all 491 +1.3% -8.4% 96% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover285.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 2% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 1% -17.6%
15% -25.1% 1% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $690.49 · official $690.12 (match) · 3500 history records