Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc86b…6e26 sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$454 (-24%) realized −$302 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$915
other 11% −$89
weather 8% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-66.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -62.6% -66.1% 17% 8% -65.3%
≤30d 12 -62.6% -66.1% 17% 8% -65.3%
≤90d 12 -62.6% -66.1% 17% 8% -65.3%
all 12 -62.6% -66.1% 17% 8% -65.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.1% 8% -65.3%
10% ← realistic here -69.4% 0% -68.7%
15% -72.3% 0% -71.7%
20% -75.1% 0% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$87 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 50¢ 46¢ $190 $173 −$17 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? No 83¢ 91¢ $150 $165 +$15 (+10%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 −$89 -44%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $151 −$59 -39%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$31 -61%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$37 -36%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 +$20 +20%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $113 2m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $193 6m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $92 41m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $20 41m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 24¢ $65 41m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 85¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $101 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $102 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 7h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 7h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 7h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 7h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 7h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 8h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 8h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $202 8h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.15 · official $574.00 · 22 history records