Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc869…bc8d sports 1059 markets active 0h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,467 (-5%) realized −$2,432 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%481W / 562L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$230est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$374
7 days+$374
14 days+$374
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,160
other 9% −$382
crypto 0% −$41
world 0% +$7
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +19.7% +8.3% 56% 53% +14.6%
≤30d 121 -2.7% -12.0% 49% 48% -8.9%
≤90d 411 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 48% -12.3%
all 1043 -10.7% -19.2% 46% 44% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 44% -14.8%
10% -26.9% 40% -23.0%
15% -34.0% 33% -30.4%
20% -40.4% 25% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$2,432
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses481 / 562
Est. fees paid−$230
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1043 / 1059
History coverage590d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1043 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Washington Nationals 52¢ 92¢ $25 $44 +$19 (+78%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 62¢ 78¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+27%)
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics PortlandFire 37¢ 49¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+32%)
Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 50¢ 50¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Under 67¢ 84¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 63¢ 40¢ $19 $12 −$7 (-36%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Under 62¢ 36¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-41%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 10¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-55%)
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 167.5 Under 34¢ 17¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-50%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 2¢ $9 $2 −$6 (-72%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Nemiga Gaming 40¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 387 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Division One vs QoR - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $24 −$2 -9%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 28 $37 +$19 +49%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $25 −$13 -52%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $14 −$9 -64%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $142 +$42 +30%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 28 $49 +$8 +16%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire Jun 28 $59 +$21 +37%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $40 +$13 +32%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $36 +$101 +282%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $22 +$1 +3%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Yorkshire Jun 28 $2 $0 -6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Jun 28 $87 +$55 +64%
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 28 $25 +$20 +79%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Nottinghamshire Jun 28 $10 +$5 +48%
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $37 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $18 +$46 +251%
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $13 +$14 +105%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Somerset Jun 28 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $23 +$30 +129%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 28 $40 +$3 +8%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $20 −$8 -37%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $22 −$22 -98%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $35 +$8 +22%
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $13 −$12 -91%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $35 +$22 +62%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $23 +$25 +105%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $26 −$26 -98%
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 27 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -98%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $18 +$27 +145%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $25 −$19 -75%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $32 +$13 +40%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand Jun 27 $56 −$34 -61%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 178.5 Jun 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5 Jun 27 $18 +$12 +66%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $109 +$84 +77%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $25 +$14 +57%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $51 +$75 +146%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $29 −$29 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $35 +$70 +202%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $49 −$39 -79%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $70 +$8 +12%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $124 −$23 -18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $42 +$17 +41%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $35 +$7 +21%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $70 −$69 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY Division One 50¢ $22 9m
Valorant: Division One vs QoR - Map 1 Winner SELL QoR 54¢ $22 9m
Valorant: Division One vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY QoR 58¢ $24 10m
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY PortlandFire 37¢ $16 26m
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 34¢ $9 39m
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 68¢ $11 40m
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 63¢ $19 40m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 62¢ $19 42m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings SELL Minnesota Lynx 91¢ $56 44m
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Miami Marlins 23¢ $12 45m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $9 46m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $19 46m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 47m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 24¢ $5 59m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $19 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 52¢ $25 1h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $15 1h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 46¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $53 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Nigma Galaxy 66¢ $35 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Yellow Submarine 35¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Yellow Submarine 49¢ $26 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings BUY Minnesota Lynx 60¢ $37 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Nemiga Gaming 42¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Nemiga Gaming 39¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Nemiga Gaming 39¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL 4ikibamboni 80¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 28¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Nigma Galaxy 70¢ $46 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.05 · official $215.05 (match) · 2647 history records