Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc868…7bd7 weather 269 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,623 (+11%) realized +$1,547 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate63%166W / 99L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,894
7 days+$1,915
14 days+$1,906
30 days+$1,927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% +$265
sports 39% +$932
other 11% +$152
world 3% +$168
crypto 1% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +38.1% +24.9% 74% 21% +106.9%
≤30d 68 +20.5% +9.0% 78% 16% +48.4%
≤90d 239 +0.3% -9.3% 65% 22% +11.8%
all 265 -0.0% -9.5% 63% 24% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 24% +0.1%
10% -18.2% 19% -9.5%
15% -26.1% 14% -18.2%
20% -33.3% 12% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized+$1,547
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses166 / 99
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)265 / 269
History coverage107d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 89¢ 100¢ $224 $251 +$27 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $113 $169 +$56 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 83¢ 79¢ $51 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 90¢ 82¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$38 +116%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $95 +$1,853 +1958%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 +$8 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$3 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$12 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$36 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$13 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$5 -33%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $113 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $78 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$7 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 09 $78 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $160 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 8? Jun 08 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 7? Jun 07 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4? Jun 04 $111 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 83¢ $43 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 80¢ $51 26m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 80¢ $13 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $28 35m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 82¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $106 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 80¢ $78 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 68¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 68¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $147 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $37 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $7 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.44 · official $508.44 (match) · 1767 history records