Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc866…1436 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$1
politics 30% −$1
sports 20% +$1
economics 10% $0
culture 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.5%
all 20 -0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage107d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $97 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $97 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $95 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 12h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 12h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $95 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $95 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $95 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $96 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $96 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $96 23d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 31d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $96 33d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $94 34d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 35d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 39d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 39d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 42d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 42d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $96 61d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $96 62d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $96 65d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $96 66d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $96 69d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $96 70d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 73d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 73d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 80d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 80d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $97 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records