Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc864…f1ab other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% $0
world 32% −$1
politics 10% +$2
crypto 10% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 6 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 44 +0.1% -9.5% 39% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage404d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 $0 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $9 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu? Jun 26 $11 $0 +4%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 25 $7 −$1 -8%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July? Jun 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
French Open: Sinner vs. Bublik Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 03 $9 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $8 $0 +3%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? May 28 $24 $0 +1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 26 $24 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 22 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 15 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $47 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $47 6h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $47 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $47 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $47 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $30 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $30 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $9 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $9 29d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 94¢ $16 361d
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $6 362d
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 365d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 366d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 367d
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $7 367d
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $7 367d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $7 367d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $7 368d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between SELL No 86¢ $7 368d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between BUY No 86¢ $7 368d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 369d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 369d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July? SELL No 97¢ $7 369d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July? BUY No 95¢ $7 369d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? SELL No 98¢ $7 370d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY No 98¢ $7 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.92 · official $46.92 (match) · 108 history records