Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc863…8ae4 weather 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%134W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$10
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$27
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 78 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 127 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 136 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×285.17 per $1 lost it wins $285.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses134 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage117d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $483 $484 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $491 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 23? Jun 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 24 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 22 $435 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $496 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $534 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $306 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $368 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $503 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $387 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 8? Jun 09 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 8? Jun 09 $317 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $366 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $476 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 5? Jun 06 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $485 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 4 Jun 04 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 3? Jun 04 $363 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $142 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $483 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $81 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $425 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $66 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $490 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $71 26h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $230 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $435 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $103 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $35 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $496 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $63 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $557 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $556 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $558 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $379 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $155 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $554 9d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $221 9d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $80 9d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $146 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $306 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.56 · official $483.56 (match) · 295 history records