Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc85f…15f8 sports 595 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,956 (-6%) realized −$5,717 · open −$239
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%340W / 253L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$706est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$173
14 days−$365
30 days−$1,677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$4,239
other 23% +$1,418
crypto 1% −$758
politics 1% −$253
world 0% −$37
finance 0% −$69
culture 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +207.7% +178.4% 67% 67% -34.0%
≤30d 36 +13.5% +2.7% 47% 42% -35.7%
≤90d 382 -27.3% -34.2% 40% 33% -22.4%
all 593 -6.8% -15.7% 57% 47% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 47% -12.9%
10% -23.8% 37% -21.3%
15% -31.1% 28% -28.9%
20% -37.9% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$115 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$5,717
Unrealized−$239
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses340 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$706
Open positions2
Markets (closed)593 / 595
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 49¢ 36¢ $125 $92 −$33 (-26%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 28¢ $210 $4 −$206 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 20 $111 +$88 +79%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $364 +$5 +1%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $153 +$16 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $265 −$262 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$91 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $21 +$71 +340%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $173 −$170 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $381 +$34 +9%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $253 −$68 -27%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $245 +$7 +3%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 10 $188 +$56 +30%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $29 −$2 -6%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Cabral/Mektic vs Hidalgo/Trhac Jun 10 $146 +$45 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $196 −$94 -48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $180 −$107 -60%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $210 −$207 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $113 +$97 +85%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $350 −$344 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $1,790 −$23 -1%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $15 −$14 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $119 +$79 +67%
Nuno Borges vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 29 $178 −$177 -99%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Borges (+2.5) May 29 $21 −$21 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $577 −$357 -62%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Burruchaga (+1.5) May 28 $212 +$145 +68%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $181 +$39 +22%
Set Handicap: Faria (-2.5) vs Struff (+2.5) May 28 $215 −$213 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) May 28 $258 +$138 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $76 +$61 +80%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $122 −$120 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $201 −$199 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Ba May 26 $142 −$140 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala May 26 $94 +$36 +38%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 26 $50 +$64 +129%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $251 +$50 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $435 +$47 +11%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) May 17 $103 +$118 +115%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 17 $220 +$107 +48%
Zagreb: Elmer Moeller vs Zsombor Piros May 17 $245 +$3 +1%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $279 −$273 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Antonia Ruzic vs Kamilla Rakhimova May 05 $81 −$79 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Bondar vs Qinwen Zheng May 05 $54 +$26 +48%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anastasia Potapova vs Niko May 05 $343 +$36 +10%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Bondar (+1.5) May 05 $219 −$215 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers May 05 $102 +$68 +67%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) May 05 $172 −$170 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 04 $103 +$17 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 56¢ $55 8m
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $174 44m
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $2 45m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No $22 47m
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) SELL Noskova 100¢ $200 54m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $192 1h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Noskova 55¢ $111 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $431 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 36¢ $158 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 65¢ $31 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 65¢ $16 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 65¢ $11 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 65¢ $3 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 65¢ $3 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 64¢ $3 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 64¢ $6 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 64¢ $23 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 40¢ $49 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 40¢ $6 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 40¢ $3 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 40¢ $2 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 36¢ $55 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 66¢ $59 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 63¢ $151 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito SELL Diane Parry 92¢ $1 8h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 62¢ $160 8h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito SELL Diane Parry 92¢ $6 8h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito SELL Diane Parry 90¢ $140 8h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito SELL Diane Parry 90¢ $14 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.30 · official $126.60 · 3500 history records