Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc85e…cc7e crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$713 (-2%) realized −$528 · open −$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate68%46W / 22L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day295.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,056
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (295 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -3.9% -13.1% 68% 44% -15.6%
≤30d 68 -3.9% -13.1% 68% 44% -15.6%
≤90d 68 -3.9% -13.1% 68% 44% -15.6%
all 68 -3.9% -13.1% 68% 44% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover295.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 44% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 26% -23.7%
15% -29.0% 24% -31.1%
20% -35.9% 21% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$219 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$845
Realized−$528
Unrealized−$185
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses46 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage1d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day295.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 85¢ 69¢ $1,030 $845 −$185 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $1,504 −$1,504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $502 +$33 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $1,201 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $403 +$51 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $2,312 +$41 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $1,318 +$208 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $501 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $2,002 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $304 +$62 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $301 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $1,716 +$258 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $402 −$200 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $501 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $1,490 +$476 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $510 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $1,102 −$87 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $1,510 +$33 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $605 +$73 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $906 +$90 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $402 +$32 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $301 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $171 +$25 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $312 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $110 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $332 +$43 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $113 +$65 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $112 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $112 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $332 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $100 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $98 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $100 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $844.69 · official $844.81 (match) · 358 history records