Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C8 0xc85d…18b2 other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$487 (+3%) realized +$251 · open +$236
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate74%43W / 15L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$6,570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$71
14 days−$70
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$171
politics 18% +$117
world 17% +$56
culture 5% +$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 33% -23.6%
≤30d 21 -19.6% -27.2% 71% 10% -10.1%
≤90d 56 +0.2% -9.3% 73% 21% -8.0%
all 58 +0.4% -9.1% 74% 21% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 21% -7.8%
10% -17.8% 12% -16.6%
15% -25.8% 12% -24.7%
20% -33.1% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$6,570
Realized+$251
Unrealized+$236
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses43 / 15
Open positions25
Markets (closed)58 / 83
History coverage152d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 79¢ 81¢ $3,334 $3,460 +$126 (+4%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 79¢ 84¢ $810 $866 +$56 (+7%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 83¢ 90¢ $630 $685 +$54 (+9%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $294 $300 +$6 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $253 $254 +$1 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $218 $221 +$3 (+1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $192 $200 +$8 (+4%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $83 $89 +$6 (+7%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $83 $88 +$5 (+7%)
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+10%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 70¢ 51¢ $79 $58 −$21 (-27%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $16 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+85%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 14¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-77%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 61¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 30¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 19 $23 −$14 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $97 +$41 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$110 -73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 +$10 +7%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $45 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will David Raum be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 30 $209 +$8 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 30 $72 +$5 +7%
New pandemic in 2026? May 29 $86 +$2 +3%
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? May 29 $9 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 28 $444 +$15 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 27 $293 +$14 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 27 $23 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $88 +$3 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $972 +$13 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliame May 23 $63 +$5 +8%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Jamie Leweling be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup s May 21 $0 $0 +4%
Will Leroy Sané be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squad May 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck be included in Germany's official 2026 World C May 21 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Malick Thiaw be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squ May 21 $149 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 17 $442 +$20 +4%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 16 $496 +$1 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $91 +$1 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will Serge Gnabry be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squ May 12 $19 $0 +2%
Will "Right" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experie May 12 $19 $0 +1%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $5 +$14 +275%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $10 +$7 +74%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 01 $150 −$1 -1%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $10 +$1 +8%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Apr 28 $150 +$1 +0%
Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? Apr 28 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $10 −$8 -81%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $10 −$5 -46%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 19 $13 −$1 -5%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 16 $2 +$2 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $13 −$2 -11%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 2h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 2h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $105 18h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $2 24h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 24h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 35h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $90 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 40h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $2 40h
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 41h
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 41h
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 41h
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 41h
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 41h
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 41h
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 41h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $4 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $14 2d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 2d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 2d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $113 2d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 4d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 4d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 4d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 4d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 4d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $17 4d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e BUY Yes 94¢ $47 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 4d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,570.41 · official $6,571.14 (match) · 690 history records