Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C8 0xc85c…e47b other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$422 (+24%) realized +$362 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$548
sports 8% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 60% +16.6%
≤30d 5 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 60% +16.6%
≤90d 5 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 60% +16.6%
all 5 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 60% +16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 60% +16.6%
10% -13.1% 60% +5.4%
15% -21.5% 60% -4.8%
20% -29.2% 20% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$72 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized+$362
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $242 $244 +$2 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $191 $189 −$2 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $107 $167 +$60 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $990 +$452 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$22 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $194 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $245 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $98 8h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $98 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $990 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.32 · official $600.32 (match) · 12 history records