Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc855…eb60
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$37 -36%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$20
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage Wildcard Gaming 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage Outlast $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 51¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $15 +$18 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $22 −$22 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$18
other 38% −$18
crypto 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 17% -40.4%
≤30d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 17% -40.4%
≤90d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 17% -40.4%
all 6 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 17% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 17% -40.4%
10% -44.1% 17% -46.1%
15% -49.5% 17% -51.3%
20% -54.5% 17% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.98 · official $19.98 (match) · 17 history records