trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 51¢ | 50¢ | $43 | $42 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $13 | −$3 | -26% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $51 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $46 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $40 | +$12 | +29% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 06 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 05 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 04 | $32 | −$1 | -4% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $32 | $0 | +2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 03 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 19 | $73 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 | Mar 12 | $52 | +$21 | +41% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3? | Mar 03 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| SE Louisiana vs. UT Rio Grande Valley | Mar 03 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on February | Mar 03 | $51 | +$1 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +1.3% | -8.4% | 33% | 11% | -7.2% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 29% | 7% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 29% | 7% | -8.2% |
| all | 24 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 50% | 8% | -6.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 8% | -6.1% |
| 10% | -16.2% | 8% | -15.1% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 4% | -23.3% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 0% | -30.8% |