Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc854…1d79 crypto 1595 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$576 (-1%) realized −$576 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%1542W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day49.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$861
7 days−$859
14 days−$830
30 days−$831
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 -5.2% -14.2% 94% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 1253 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1603 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 0% -9.4%
all 1603 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$37 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$576
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1542 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1603 / 1595
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1603 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$160 -16141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$35 -7070%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$152 -30779%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$176 -35652%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$159 -32382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$6 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.41 · official $40.40 · 3500 history records