Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:00:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C8 0xc853…9d37 other 476 markets active 0h ago coverage 831d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,665 (-5%) realized −$8,300 · open −$365
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%250W / 194L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$8,793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,475
7 days+$2,312
14 days+$2,620
30 days+$2,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$864
politics 34% −$7,151
sports 23% −$1,455
culture 7% −$1,868
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% +$511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.2% -5.7% 81% 69% +6.7%
≤30d 124 -7.3% -16.1% 61% 52% -6.4%
≤90d 258 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 50% -16.8%
all 444 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 49% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 49% -14.3%
10% -24.5% 35% -22.5%
15% -31.7% 27% -30.0%
20% -38.4% 20% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$221 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

831d coverage
Net worth$8,793
Realized−$8,300
Unrealized−$365
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses250 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions47
Markets (closed)444 / 476
History coverage831d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 97¢ $4,653 $4,656 +$2 (+0%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 28¢ $794 $559 −$235 (-30%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 92¢ $260 $411 +$151 (+58%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 12¢ $325 $299 −$26 (-8%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 68¢ 68¢ $278 $276 −$2 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 44¢ $247 $240 −$7 (-3%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 84¢ $224 $236 +$13 (+6%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 56¢ $224 $182 −$42 (-19%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $185 $178 −$8 (-4%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $185 $163 −$22 (-12%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 68¢ $158 $150 −$8 (-5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 76¢ $136 $132 −$4 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 44¢ $115 $128 +$13 (+12%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 64¢ $123 $120 −$4 (-3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 60¢ 88¢ $82 $120 +$38 (+46%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 32¢ $102 $115 +$13 (+12%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 59¢ $124 $112 −$11 (-9%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 42¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 74¢ 76¢ $81 $84 +$3 (+3%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $79 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 42¢ 14¢ $247 $79 −$168 (-68%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 66¢ $63 $66 +$3 (+4%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 48¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 66¢ 60¢ $62 $55 −$6 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,239 +$511 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,087 +$59 +5%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $642 +$135 +21%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $161 +$55 +34%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2,626 +$718 +27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $68 −$68 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,917 +$162 +8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1 $0 +34%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $615 +$178 +29%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 18 $347 +$189 +54%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $139 −$138 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $469 +$114 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $915 +$110 +12%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $564 +$252 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $67 +$38 +57%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $104 +$43 +41%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,777 +$576 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $43 +$10 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $198 +$86 +44%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $174 +$87 +50%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $50 +$11 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $239 −$235 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $46 −$45 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $24 +$11 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $87 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $63 +$48 +76%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $47 +$11 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,388 +$184 +13%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $72 +$57 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $349 −$341 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $53 −$51 -98%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$4 +140%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $103 +$117 +114%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $1,048 −$1,023 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $153 +$121 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 06 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $19 −$18 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $1,988 −$1,969 -99%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $562 +$88 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $349 −$341 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $9 17m
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $9 26m
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $31 26m
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $86 30m
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $86 32m
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $11 35m
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $17 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $43 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $19 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $32 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $23 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $23 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $3 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $20 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $11 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $23 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $25 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $4,658 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $53 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $1,034 13h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $776 13h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $22 21h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $294 21h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $2,944 21h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $82 23h
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $178 25h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $542 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $68 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2,084 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,792.78 · official $8,793.48 (match) · 2116 history records