Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc851…778e crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+10%) realized +$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day84.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$57
politics 1% −$1
other 1% −$5
world 1% −$5
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -2.8% -12.1% 33% 29% -3.7%
≤30d 52 -2.8% -12.1% 33% 29% -3.7%
≤90d 52 -2.8% -12.1% 33% 29% -3.7%
all 52 -2.8% -12.1% 33% 29% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 29% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 27% -12.9%
15% -28.2% 25% -21.3%
20% -35.2% 25% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day84.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 29¢ 33¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 31¢ 25¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$53 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$33 +106%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$34 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$57 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$22 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$44 +831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$30 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.35 · official $11.35 (match) · 148 history records