Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc850…8c51 crypto 467 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,178 (+149%) realized +$9,178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%241W / 224L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day93.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$776
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +0.9% -8.7% 53% 51% -5.6%
≤30d 441 +0.4% -9.2% 51% 48% -5.3%
≤90d 465 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 49% +1.9%
all 465 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 49% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 49% +1.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 46% -7.8%
15% -23.2% 40% -16.7%
20% -30.7% 34% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$9,178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses241 / 224
Open positions2
Markets (closed)465 / 467
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day93.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 53¢ 55¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$8 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$4 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$17 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$9 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$28 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$4 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$7 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.04 · official $20.30 · 3500 history records