Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc84f…e0c5
world · 72 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$141,394 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$55,842 · open −$64,496
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$492,201
Realized−$55,842
Unrealized−$64,496
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses35 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)65 / 72
History coverage46d
Avg bet$77,802
Trades / day72.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 10 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,718
7 days−$36,865
14 days−$100,499
30 days−$51,569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $165,000 $280,005 +$115,005 (+70%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 32¢ $28,034 $58,166 +$30,132 (+107%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $165,000 $49,995 −$115,005 (-70%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $21,424 $34,144 +$12,720 (+59%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $21,172 $31,070 +$9,898 (+47%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $27,553 $28,120 +$567 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 36¢ 41¢ $4,327 $4,919 +$592 (+14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $1,963 $2,827 +$865 (+44%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $2,496 $1,969 −$527 (-21%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $4,419 $801 −$3,618 (-82%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $304 $185 −$118 (-39%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $16,806 $0 −$16,806 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $7,967 $0 −$7,967 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2,337 $0 −$2,337 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7,982 $0 −$7,982 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $307 $0 −$307 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 9¢ 0¢ $4,374 $0 −$4,374 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $529 $0 −$529 (-100%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $243 $0 −$243 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? No 7¢ 0¢ $2,171 $0 −$2,171 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $22,756 $0 −$22,756 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $202 $0 −$202 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $16,806 −$17,933 -107%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Jun 12 $58 −$1,112 -1902%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $119,820 +$180 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $40,894 +$112 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $4,867 +$15 +0%
Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Jun 10 $248 +$10,022 +4040%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $63,930 +$42 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $9,926 +$4,992 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $12,173 +$12 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $5,949 −$4,735 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $52,035 −$28,458 -55%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $315,094 +$1,308 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $101,559 +$152 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $32,127 +$4,733 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $145,663 −$59,746 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $29,757 −$3,037 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $6,500 −$6,499 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $307 −$307 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $8,073 +$290 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $529 −$529 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $31,113 −$25,089 -81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $202 −$202 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $30,105 −$19,892 -66%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $775 −$592 -76%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $5,901 −$2,798 -47%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $912 +$657 +72%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $143,022 +$84,700 +59%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1,203 +$22 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $13,765 +$280 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $31,174 +$5,274 +17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $1,101 −$89 -8%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $9,209 +$93 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $42,545 +$30,124 +71%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $4,156 −$4,093 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $10,442 −$9,592 -92%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $2,991 −$2,697 -90%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 22 $47 −$40 -85%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $2,311 −$2,209 -96%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $17,010 −$6,314 -37%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 21 $40 −$38 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $15,416 +$15 +0%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $477 +$1 +0%
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $706 +$1 +0%
Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,201 +$1 +0%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2,888 +$3 +0%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6,963 +$20 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $14,722 +$15 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3,853 +$1,449 +38%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $712 +$31 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 59% −$107,664
world 31% +$2,476
crypto 6% +$1,373
other 4% +$1,075
economics 0% +$1,449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $949 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $41 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $182 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $56 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $495 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 27¢ $270 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 26¢ $383 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 31¢ $621 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $394 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $420 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $585 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $390 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $380 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $692 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,349 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +152.0% +128.0% 64% 18% -15.7%
≤30d 55 +5.4% -4.6% 56% 16% -6.5%
≤90d 65 +28.4% +16.1% 54% 15% -7.6%
all 65 +28.4% +16.1% 54% 15% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.1% 15% -7.6%
10% +5.0% 11% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -5.1% 11% -24.5%
20% -14.4% 9% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492,200.62 · official $492,200.62 (match) · 3500 history records