Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc84b…fe57 crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$579 (-12%) realized −$579 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%70W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$186
14 days+$194
30 days−$547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$39
weather 45% −$514
world 1% +$4
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +9.0% -1.4% 92% 57% -0.8%
≤30d 108 -6.0% -14.9% 65% 38% -19.8%
≤90d 108 -6.0% -14.9% 65% 38% -19.8%
all 108 -6.0% -14.9% 65% 38% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 38% -19.8%
10% -23.1% 19% -27.5%
15% -30.5% 10% -34.5%
20% -37.3% 7% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$31 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$579
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses70 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage19d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$6 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$7 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 −$20 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 09 $7 +$4 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $61 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $51 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $36 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records