Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc84a…2319 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$89 (-18%) realized −$86 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$44
sports 30% +$4
crypto 8% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 32% -17.8%
≤30d 28 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 32% -17.8%
≤90d 28 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 32% -17.8%
all 28 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 32% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 32% -17.8%
10% -26.9% 25% -25.7%
15% -33.9% 14% -32.9%
20% -40.4% 14% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$19 +143%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$5 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -29%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 −$94 -95%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$27 +148%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$49 +436%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 −$32 -91%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $3 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.75 · official $21.75 (match) · 58 history records