Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc84a…b573 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1
politics 20% $0
world 17% −$11
sports 5% $0
economics 5% +$2
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -6.2% -15.1% 25% 0% -16.7%
≤90d 5 -4.9% -14.0% 40% 0% -16.0%
all 21 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -11.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -20.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage453d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $50 −$10 -21%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Wyndham Clark win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $18 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 09 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 87¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $20 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $5 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $34 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $39 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 40h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $31 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 32d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 32d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 32d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $21 361d
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $1 366d
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 396d
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? BUY No 99¢ $2 419d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $20 433d
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $20 433d
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? BUY No 99¢ $20 433d
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? SELL No 93¢ $22 434d
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? BUY No 93¢ $22 435d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 435d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 436d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 98¢ $5 437d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 BUY No 98¢ $5 438d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 440d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.70 · official $36.70 (match) · 61 history records