trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 33% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -6.2% | -15.1% | 25% | 0% | -16.7% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -4.9% | -14.0% | 40% | 0% | -16.0% |
| all | 21 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 57% | 0% | -11.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.8% | 0% | -11.5% |
| 10% | -18.5% | 0% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 0% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -33.6% | 0% | -34.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 87¢ | 90¢ | $36 | $37 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $10 | $0 | -4% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 27 | $50 | −$10 | -21% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 23 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 27 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Pope be from Oceania? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania | May 05 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mark Carney lose his seat? | Apr 15 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 15 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Wyndham Clark win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 15 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Apr 13 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 10 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 10 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? | Apr 09 | $23 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? | Apr 07 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? | Apr 06 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 05 | $23 | $0 | +0% |