Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc848…537b crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate61%82W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$24
14 days+$19
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$46
sports 18% −$59
other 6% −$1
world 5% −$7
weather 2% $0
finance 1% −$8
economics 0% −$2
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.3% -11.6% 71% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 37 -12.1% -20.5% 54% 11% -8.0%
≤90d 103 -11.7% -20.1% 61% 16% -10.3%
all 134 -8.7% -17.4% 61% 17% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 17% -10.6%
10% -25.3% 13% -19.2%
15% -32.5% 10% -27.0%
20% -39.1% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses82 / 52
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)134 / 141
History coverage93d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $353 $354 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? No 46¢ 45¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 36¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $246 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $563 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $77 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in May? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $69 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $29 +$7 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $32 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $12 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $29 $0 +1%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $54 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $12 +$5 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -32%
Ramp IPO before 2027? May 27 $2 $0 -15%
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2 May 27 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2 $0 -14%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2 $0 -19%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 26 $2 $0 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 21 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $2 +$2 +104%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 18 $11 +$5 +45%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu May 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma May 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 15 $4 −$3 -61%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Jiujiang: Hayu Kinoshita vs En-Shuo Liang May 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $5 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 13 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $12 13m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $11 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 73¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 72¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $338 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.34 · official $364.51 (match) · 1214 history records