Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C8 0xc846…c413 sports 1561 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$961 (+7%) realized +$957 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%620W / 658L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day106.8pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$3,768
other 10% +$79
world 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 +25.9% +13.9% 47% 46% +37.6%
≤30d 1278 +24.4% +12.6% 49% 46% +22.5%
≤90d 1278 +24.4% +12.6% 49% 46% +22.5%
all 1278 +24.4% +12.6% 49% 46% +22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.6% 46% +22.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.8% 44% +10.8%
15% -8.0% 41% +0.1%
20% -17.1% 38% -9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized+$957
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses620 / 658
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1278 / 1561
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day106.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Yi Zhou 52¢ 57¢ $21 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 57¢ 64¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+11%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Julia Grabher 66¢ 72¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+8%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 52¢ 56¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+7%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 50¢ 54¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+8%)
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen FC Bayern Munchen 51¢ 55¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+8%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Brandon Nakashima 68¢ 72¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 57¢ 59¢ $21 $21 +$1 (+4%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 18¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ 52¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 50¢ 48¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 46¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 39¢ 38¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 52¢ 50¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia Quimsa 65¢ 61¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Ayla Aksu 65¢ 67¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Under 43¢ 36¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 80¢ 70¢ $18 $15 −$2 (-12%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 47¢ 58¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+24%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 55¢ 52¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-5%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 60¢ 45¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-25%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 44¢ 45¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Facundo Acosta 56¢ 62¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 455 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Francesinhas vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pallacanestro Reggiana vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Cervia: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Tommaso Compagnucci Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Geneva Open: Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: OG vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship G Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Lukas Neumay Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Project 91 (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Se Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Mary Stoiana vs Matilde Jorge Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gonzalo Bueno vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 48¢ $1 3m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 39¢ $7 19m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 50¢ $21 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 18¢ $0 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 18¢ $11 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 18¢ $5 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 18¢ $4 2h
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia BUY Quimsa 65¢ $19 2h
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia BUY Quimsa 65¢ $2 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $2 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $21 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $15 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $10 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $2 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $1 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $1 5h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $21 6h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $11 6h
Spread: Fortaleza EC (-1.5) BUY Fortaleza EC 32¢ $2 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 7h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 8h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 8h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $6 8h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 8h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 8h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.10 · official $623.10 (match) · 3500 history records